{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "publicationDate": "2026-10-24",
  "capturedAt": "2026-10-25T02:20:39Z",
  "kind": "presumed-internal-unconfirmed-origin",
  "classificationBasis": "User requested provisional treatment as internal pending producer/sponsor confirmation.",
  "sourceUrl": "https://x.com/TheAKGuy/status/2114105742877671935",
  "imageUrl": "https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVbP90RWgAAjx-E?format=webp&name=large",
  "shares": {
    "Herrera": 47.6,
    "Stout": 43.1,
    "Someone else": 2.4,
    "Undecided": 7.0
  },
  "label": "Support-calibrated ballot",
  "margin": 4.5,
  "pollster": null,
  "sponsor": null,
  "fieldDates": null,
  "sampleSize": null,
  "calibrationMethod": null,
  "primaryAverageIncluded": false,
  "relationshipToOct22Release": "Unknown; no trend inferred",
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "action": "Added separate evidence; presumed internal classification is provisional"
    },
    {
      "action": "Added interpretation of support-calibration wording; origin remains unconfirmed; no numeric changes."
    }
  ],
  "methodologyInterpretation": "Methodological clue: the labels \u201csupport-calibrated ballot\u201d and calibration to the electorate\u2019s \u201cmodeled support profile\u201d suggest an adjusted result that depends on modeling assumptions. This is compatible with internal campaign research but does not identify the producer or sponsor. The calibration inputs, unadjusted ballot result and size of the adjustment are undisclosed; its effect cannot be assessed. Presumed-internal classification remains provisional."
}